Philadelphia’s 2008 Murder Rate Through April
Has the goal of a 25% reduction in murders already been achieved?
Bit of a late update on this chart, but here’s how this year is stacking up with 2007 and 2008 so far:
According to my numbers, there were 137 murders (rather than 135) on April 30th in 2007, but we’ll stick with the Police Department’s numbers. In 2006, through the end of April, there had been 119. So, the number of murders as of the end of April, 2008 is about a 25% drop over the same period in 2007 (on target to achieve the Nutter administration’s goal), but just a 15% decline over 2006.
Here it is graphically (click to see full size):
Recall that there appeared to have been a change in policing strategy back in April of 2007 which shifted resources to the most troubled districts. Indeed, if you compare time periods starting in May and ending in April, the difference in the murder rate suggests the goal of a 25% year-over-year reduction may have already been achieved!
May 2006-April 2007: 424 murders
May 2007-April 2008: 326 murders
There were 98 fewer murders in the second one-year period than the first, a 23% reduction, and just shy of the goal.
Anonymous said,
May 7, 2008 @ 5:00 pm
Consider an overlay of temperature as an explanatory variable. It is considered general wisdom in the Emergency Departments that warm dry weather yields violence.
Anonymous said,
May 7, 2008 @ 5:02 pm
Should have scrolled down. My apologies for not scrolling down.